Forecasts for the situation on the Belgian network for the next 7 days
Supply security will not be compromised in the short term. The ""Off, and we stay ON"" campaign, aiming at raising awareness and encouraging the general public to reduce consumption, remains active yet as in previous years. The government has informed the public in the past through a large-scale media campaign. That material still exists (offon.be, readyforwinter.be, Elia 4cast App, Twitter, Facebook,...).
Elia predicts a structural shortage on the energy market up to 7 days in advance. It will have to use the strategic reserve to ensure supply security. The strategic reserve consists of production units that no longer participate in the market (E.ON Vilvoorde, SPE Luminus Seraing) and large consumers who have agreed to reduce their consumption in case of an emergency. In total, we talk about 750 MW. This reserve can be activated and deployed on day-1 to keep the electricity network balanced. When the light turns orange, Elia will make preparations to activate this reserve on day-1. According to Elia's estimates, with an orange light, the strategic reserve will suffice to ensure power supply.
Elia predicts a structural shortage on the energy market. It will have to use the strategic reserve, but it is expected that this will not be enough to cover the energy supply. At this stage, the government will deploy the second part of the preventive emergency plan. In addition to the awareness campaign ("Off, and we stay On"), extra prohibition measures will be taken to reduce consumption. Among other things:
Elia predicts a structural shortage in the energy market. It will have to use the strategic reserve, but it is expected that this will not be enough to cover the energy supply. The effects of the preventive emergency plan also seem to be insufficient to balance the network.
At this stage, Elia is given permission from the government to turn off parts of the electricity network in order to prevent a complete collapse of the network.